Social media has become an easy way to spread anything and everything these days. Well-known astrologer fund manager Mark Faber, known for his predictions, has said that the market will fall by 10 percent.
It was a nerve-wracking week but we kept the target between 16800 marks and 17500 marks as expected. This could happen more than once before 10 March 2022. Yes, market conditions and especially many HNIs FPIs and businessmen are following the data of FPIs and have made up their mind that all is over for Indian equity markets. Whenever the majority decides like this, the market takes the opposite route. With OI of only 1.02 Lakh Crore in Nifty, PE 22.21, and RSI 46, I don't believe in these views. The market has fallen in the past only when the PE crossed 28.5 and the RSI crossed 81. So it is very difficult to understand how the market would have fallen. I think there will be no further downside in the market.
Social media has become an easy way to spread anything and everything nowadays, with millions of WhatsApp groups increasing the number of followers.
Recently Boston-based asset management firm GMO (Grantham, Mayo, & van Otterloo) released a report that the US market would decline 45%. I didn't get a chance to read their report but know that this fund will have to close 2 of its schemes and its fund managers also faced scrutiny. It may be part of the Big Bear Cartel. But his recent deals on INFY and ICICI are not good. A smart investor said that whatever their track record is, they have proved themselves right in their views on these 2 stocks for the last 7 years.
Goldman Sachs has said in its report that the US will raise rates 7 times. I don't know when they were accurate 2 times in a row. GOLDMAN is known to be one of the largest BEAR funds, so a statement like this can serve to create an atmosphere for the followers. Yes, it is a big name which can be followed extensively.
Well-known astrologer fund manager Mark Faber, known for his predictions, has said that the market will fall by 10 per cent. This is the same person who predicted the Sensex to be 2500 after LEHMAN. Now you can also understand his credibility.
Next comes Jefferies Chris Wood. He was ex CLSA. He recently said that there is a beginning of a big correction. The market may fall like 2020. Again his track record does not say that he has been proved right many times.
We are in the midst of the biggest consolidation, even as we approach the end of the financial year. In the last 4 months, with all negative trends, we are at the level of 17100. Even though there were some occasions where we also saw 16400 and 16800 levels and the whole time we saw FPI selling. For me DII matters not FPI and DII has resumed its purchase. Now even if FPIs sell another 50000 crores worth of stocks, DIIs will be able to stop it as we saw for Rs 99,000 crores. The market has maintained a narrow range of 17000 and 17800, which is the same as 14200 and 15000.
The official PE Ratio 22.21 (present) of Nifty. Fear and greed works. On 28.70 PE, I had asked the exit and someone did not like it and named the Liquidity Driven Rally. The prices of many a group companies have been curched up to 60%. Can it be 11 which was in 1991 and if you have answered, then you should immediately leave the stock market, as believes above 4 veterans. At first 4 reasons, which are causing large curution noise, they are as follows. Increase in inflation rate was 800 billion dollars in 2008, which increased the liquidity and promoting the economy for a decade. Now a 7 trillion dollar QE has already been done and even if it is reduced, it will continue to support economies for at least a decade. Once the injected liquidity can not mess up. The results of inflation will be, but the speed of the speed can not end so quickly. That's why I agree with the veteran investor Bhansali that if rates have increased, then the market will definitely grow. Russia and Ukraine Afghanistan, North Korea, India-China etc. are the second form of 10th and from 2001 to 2022, as it was reported last week and in such cases the market reached a new height after the initial shock. We also had 5% correction. Due to this there are oversold market or light market, keeping the cash of investors, heavy influx in the AUM every month, the early increase in earnings, the fastest growing economy, large scale capital expenditure. Finally Oil Rise If we are responding at $ 95, then what will happen when it becomes $ 11520. Will all the economies will collapse overnight? Will its impact will be on India? Oil is controlled by the US and India and China has adequate oil storage. The increase in Oil has been due to no investment in this area for the last 6 years. The fate of this industry was devastated in 2016 when Oil fell to the lower level of $ 31. Now the rates for special vessels and wholesale carriers are $ 23000 and $ 4000 (have recently been less than $ 6000). Capex bicycle has started, which will take at least 3 to 5 years to reach the capacity level before 2016, so this industry will be strong for the next 5 years and OIL will continue, whether we want or not. I believe in the Indian economy, Hon'ble Finance Minister and Hon'ble PM, who have prohibited the Indian economy all over the world. He is the best FM so far and his policy decisions are the best. India is the fastest growing economy. Some Anti India Investors are now changing their thoughts. We have become a budget size of Rs 44 lakh crore and we will get the status of 5 trillion dollars in 2025. This means that my estimate of 37800 Nifty will also be true until 2025. UP election results will lead to a new class for markets at new levels and 2024. India will again see the next tenure with the Honorable Prime Minister. Yes, the equity market is risky and likely to be wrong, but it happens for less time. There is no possibility of wrong in the long run because PE will fall to 17 (1 year ahead), which is minimal to reach the final goal of 28.7, it means clearly 50% above the Nifty. This is the time when shopping with air should take risk instead. Anyway, your own understanding will force you to invest, although I will give the opinion of shopping on small-caps and mid-caps in 2022. After the decline of SEBI Circular 2017, I was a single person who said that we would see the biggest rally in small-caps and mid-caps.
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